Introduction

Today, I'd like to introduce you to PuPu. Not poo poo, PuPu with the letter u represents the contagious nature of arbitrariness.

For example, let's say I wanted to estimate how many metal cans you eat per week. I claim

  1. You eat exactly 1 metal can per hour (completely arbitrary).
  2. Each day has 24 hours (true).
  3. Each week has 7 days (true).

Therefore, I would estimate you eat exactly 1 * 24 * 7 = 168 metal cans per week.

Despite the true claims 2 and 3, the completely arbitrary claim 1 renders the entire estimate also completely arbitrary. PuPu functions as an adjective, verb, and noun. So in other words, we PuPu in claim 1, so the entire estimate becomes PuPu, a PuPu estimate.

PuPu in the wild

Now why do I mention PuPu? Recently, I stumbled upon a beautiful piece of PuPu! This “analysis” by Rootclaim claims with 81% probability that COVID-19 came from gain-of-function research rather than evolved naturally. Rootclaim also claims that “[s]o far, no hypothesis in a Rootclaim analysis that received a likelihood of 50% or more was later shown to be wrong. … Achieving such a track record under those conditions is outstanding, possibly unprecedented."1 A very bold PuPu, indeed.

Hold on, how can I so confidently present the analysis as PuPu? Rootclaim uses some impressive-looking probability theory to arrive at the 81% probability. Well, let us first turn our attention to the section titled “Chimera.”

I care about you, dear reader, so I don't want you to hurt yourself cutting through the dense text. For simplicity, let us assume, in Rootclaim's favor, that (feel free to skim this upcoming quote) “SARS-CoV-2 has parts in common with two different viruses, but those individual viruses do not share these similarities with each other, indicating it is a chimera. … [T]his specific chimera seems less likely to combine in nature, as it requires interaction between hosts that do not usually cohabitate.”

Under this assumption, Rootclaim continues (under “More >” > “Probabilistic Estimates:"): “Since chimeras are created on a regular basis in labs, and this one is less likely to occur in nature, the likelihood that COVID-19 emerged zoonotically is decreased by 6x.” We have found our PuPu!

From where does this 6x multiplier come? I urge you to go through the “Chimera” section yourself and try to find a non-arbitrary reason for 6x over 420x or 1.01x. The analysis also houses such PuPu as “The actions of the WIV conservatively increase the likelihood of a lab escape by 2x.” Once again, try to find a non-arbitrary reason for 2x over 420x or 1.01x. As far as I can tell, they came from the mind, or rather the butt, of the analyzer.

Analogous to our estimate of your metal can diet, the 81% probability becomes as arbitrary as the multipliers that yielded it. The rest may stay true, and with the contagious nature of arbitrariness the 81% means nothing. Among the delicious morsels and meals of information available on the internet, Rootclaim has served us a PuPu sandwich: the bottom layer an appetizing foundation of probability theory, the top layer a scrumptious-looking site with graphs, bullet points, and references. In the middle, however, Rootclaim has slipped in a generous dollop of PuPu multipliers.

I can PuPu too

Rootclaim comes to us from Saar Wilf, a serial entrepreneur who founded Fraud Sciences, sold to PayPal for $169 million in 2008, and Trivnet, sold to Gemalto for $35 million in 2010. I don't know Wilf. However, I'd like to practice making my own arbitrary claims, my own PuPu, if you will.

One might imagine Wilf fancies himself a mind so grand it needs preservation. For such a wonderful mind, just making contrarian claims does not suffice. That mind needs to make contrarian claims backed by apparently never-wrong organizations. Yeah, that'll unmask the stupid and docile nature of the rest of us not-obscenely-rich people!

Perhaps the PuPu doesn't flow from narcissism, though. It may flow instead from an old favorite: greed. As a successful serial entrepreneur, Wilf knows how to gain traction for a new organization. Like many startups, you can find a fad and latch onto it. Everyone's thinking about COVID-19 right now. Maybe if Wilf threw out a PuPu analysis like “with 81% probability COVID-19 came from labs, not nature” people will buzz about Rootclaim! Conspiracy theorists love it! Xenophobic people love it! Anti-those people hate it! Passionate strangers will market his organization for him! Whether Wilf wants attention or money, it doesn't matter if he PuPus, only that people react.

Of course, these claims come loosely from someone who does not really know Wilf. I have spewn forth my own PuPu, and you can choose to consume mine or Wilf's.

Conclusion

Actually, I care about you, dear reader, once again. You really shouldn't eat metal cans nor PuPu. Didn't you resolve to eat better this year?

  1. How can you claim to have such an impressive track record? You can just refuse to accept any counterclaim. For example, Rootclaim claims “[t]hat Syrian sarin attacks were perpetrated by the opposition, not the government. This contradicts the position confidently claimed by virtually every Western intelligence agency, human rights organization, and research institute that has studied the issue.” If every Western intelligence agency, human rights organization, and research institute cannot prove you wrong, what can? ↩︎