Don't cut too deep with Occam's razor
Introduction
Just a quick diversion to something I find interesting.
Occam's razor
Occam's razor states the simplest explanation is most probable. Let's see an example.
Lemonade
It's a hot, hazy summer day. To give yourself something to do, you decide to make some lemonade. You gather the sugar, the pan, the pitcher…wait! Where are the lemons? They're not on the counter where you usually put them. Out of the many possibilities, let's consider 3:
- You put the lemons in the refrigerator.
- A master of espionage, on the run from the Illuminati, in desperate need of their beloved lemon kick, broke into your house and stole your lemons while you were sleeping.
- The Illuminati were using the “lemons” as drones to catch the master of espionage. Having confirmed the master is not in your house, the Illuminati has relocated the “lemons,” flying them into your neighbor's house.
Hopefully we can agree the first is the simplest. Therefore, Occam's razor tells us it is the most probable.
“Most probable”
What do we mean when we say that possibility/explanation 1 is “most probable.” From a scientific perspective, it means that it most deserves examination. In this case, you are better off looking in your refrigerator than looking for the master of espionage or the Illuminati.
Conclusion
Note Occam's razor does NOT imply the truth value of explanations. That is, possibilities/explanations 2 and 3 could be the truth (however unlikely). Occam's razor is merely a heuristic for determining which possibilities/explanations to examine first when dealing with a large number of them.